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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/28 10:46
Corn Futures Edge Higher Midday Wednesday
Corn is 1 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are narrowly mixed and wheat is 14 to
22 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 25 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.11 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed
with crude up $0.25. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold off $0.50.
CORN:
Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday Wednesday with weaker spreads as
September gets closer to going to carry versus the December with overall
range-bound action continuing as heat holds in the Western Corn Belt. Ethanol
margins look stable to start the week with energies moving more sideways and
the weekly report showing production down 14,000 barrels, with stocks up by
215,000 barrels. Brazil will continue to move along with the end of the second
crop season with frost issues still being watched as they reported book
significant amounts of cargos from Argentina, while near-term weather looks
more mixed into August for the U.S. Corn basis continues to fade with cash
inverses likely to see more pressure as wheat and southern sorghum start to
become available to feed. On the September contract, resistance remains at
$5.60 with further support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.22.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans are narrowly mixed with trade bouncing back from early weakness
again to stay rangebound with meal weakness continuing to limit strength. Meal
is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil is 0.65 cent to 0.75 cent higher. The weather
pattern is warmer and drier short term with more rain coverage in the extended
forecast for many going into pod fill. South America will continue to ship
soybeans while the run in canola values turn more sideways potentially limiting
oil upside short term. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. On
the September soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at $13.73, which we
are just below at midday, with the upper Bollinger Band at $14.30.
WHEAT:
Wheat trade is 14 to 22 cents higher at midday with spring wheat leading
once again as early harvest reminds us that the crop is poor this year. Harvest
will continue to expand across Europe and the Black Sea with mixed results so
far and Canada on deck while the dollar once again finds support above 92
points on the index. KC holds at 35-cent discount to Chicago. widening
Wednesday, with Minneapolis at a 210-cent premium holding in the middle of the
recent range. KC September on the chart has support at the 20-day at $6.31 with
resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $6.84.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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